Analysis | June 27, 2025
Faith Kipyegon made a valiant effort to become the first woman to break the 4-minute barrier in Paris yesterday, running under “perfect conditions” with a team of 13 pacers at Nike’s “Breaking4” event. She recorded the fastest ever time ever run by a woman for the mile, 4:06.42—1.22 seconds faster than her world record.
The four-minute mile was once considered an unattainable athletic feat for any human until Roger Bannister ran 3:59.4 in 1954. Since then, more than 1,700 others have gone under this mark, benefiting from advanced technology and better training methodology.
Kipyegon’s time wouldn’t have counted as an official athletics record even if she dipped under four minutes since it was an exhibition event, similar to how Eliud Kipchoge’s time of 1:59:40 isn’t considered an official marathon record. But running 4:06.42 is still a remarkable achievement and shows that we haven’t yet reached the apex of human performance in the middle distances.
After finishing her third lap in 3:01.84 seconds, it looked like Kipyegon may have had a shot at reaching the milestone, but she wouldn’t manage to hold the pace.
If Kipyegon or another female runner manages to go sub-four minutes, there’s a good argument to be made that it would be among the most impressive active records.
How Would a 4-Minute Mile Compare to Other Records?
There’s no perfect way to measure how difficult a record is to break or how impressive it is compared to other event records. But here are three ways to put into perspective how difficult the 4-minute barrier may be to break for a female runner.
A Four Minute Mile Would Be a 3.1 Percent Improvement
The current world record in the women’s mile is 4:07.64 (yesterday’s attempt doesn’t count as an official record). It was set by Kipyegon at the Herculis Diamond League event in 2023.
A time of four minutes flat would represent a 3.1 percent improvement of the current record. This might not sound like a lot, but dropping a fraction of a percentage from an already elite performance can take decades.
For reference, adding 3.1% to the current women’s mile record gives a result of 4:15.32. The first time this barrier was broken by a woman was in 1996 when Svetlana Masterkova ran 4:12.56.
Given the same rate of progression of 3.1% every 27 years, it would take until 2050 to reach the four-minute barrier. This is assuming that human performance can continue to increase linearly, but of course, it can’t. Many records have been stagnant or have only marginally improved since the 1980s or 1990s. For example, the men’s long jump and triple jump records haven’t budged at all in the past 30 years. The women’s 800-meter record has also persisted for over 40 years.
Comparing a Four Minute Mile to Other Records by Points
World Athletics Scoring Tables award 1347 points for a four-minute female mile. The current world record scores 1286 points. These tables aren’t perfect, but they do attempt to offer a way to compare performances across events.
On the women’s side, only two current world records are awarded more points than 1347:
- Gabriele Reinsch’s discus world record of 76.80 meters is awarded 1382 points
- Natalya Lisovskaya’s shot put world record of 22.63 meters is awarded 1372 points
A few other world records come close.
- Jackie Joyner-Kersee’s record in the heptathlon of 7291 is worth 1331
- Galina Chistyakova’s long jump record of 7.52 meters is awarded 1333
- Ruth Chepng’etich’s marathon record of 2:09.56 is worth 1339
Similarly, on the men’s side, only a handful of records break 1347 points:
- Usain Bolt’s 100-meter record of 9.58 seconds is awarded 1356 points
- Usain Bolt’s 200-meter record of 19.19 seconds is worth 1352 points.
Other records that come close include:
The men’s short track record of 3:45.14 in the mile held by Jakob Ingebrigtsen is awarded 1330
- Karsten Warholm’s record in the 400-meter hurdles of 45.94 seconds is awarded 1341
- Duplantis’ record of 6.28 meters in the pole vault is awarded 1346
- Jan Železný picks up 1365 points in the men’s javelin for his throw of 98.48 meters
- Mykolas Alekna receives 1342 points in the discus for his throw of 75.56 meters
How a Four Minute Mile Compares to the Men’s Record
Most of the female track records are about 10% higher than the men’s records. The current female mile record isn’t far off this mark, currently 11% slower than the men’s record of 3:43.13. Likewise, there’s about a 11.2% difference between the 1500-meter records.
Of all the standard track events, the 100-meter currently has the smallest gap with Flo Jo’s record of 10.49 seconds 9.5% slower than Usain Bolt’s best time.
The biggest gap between female and male performance is in the 800 meters, where the women’s record of 1:53.28 is 12.3% slower than the men’s record of 1:40.91.
The male-female gap between records rapidly shrank in the early 1900s, but has remained relatively constant since the 1980s, as most records have reached a crescendo on both the men’s and women’s sides.
To run 4:00 minutes in the mile would close the gap between the female to male records to 7.6%. This would represent the smallest male-female gap of any standard track and field record.
When Will Somebody Break Four Minutes?
In her post-race press conference, Kip yegon suggest that this likely won’t be her last attempt at breaking four minutes, saying, “I tried to be the first woman to run under four minutes. It’s only a matter of time before it happens – if not me, then maybe someone else. I will not lose hope; I will still go for it.”
She currently doesn’t have a particular plan to race the distance again. Her next race will be the Prefontaine Classic next week in Oregon.
Kipyegon also said, “Absolutely there will be a woman running a mile in under four minutes … And I think it will take less than 10 years. And if it doesn’t come my way, it will be someone else doing it.”