The 2026 season is creeping upon us, with the first Gold Tour event of the year kicking off at the end of the month in Boston.
In a year without a World Championship or Olympics, we’ll have to wait and see how much athletes will focus on this season versus building toward next year. Some athletes like Gabby Thomas have already referred to 2026 as an “off year,” suggesting that they may be looking to peak a year or two down the road.
Still, the World Athletics Ultimate Championships looks to fill the gap, and we’ll likely see plenty of top performances throughout the season.
Below, we’ve compiled a list of the ten world records we think are most likely to be broken. For the sake of this article, we’re only considering standard outdoor events.
1. Men’s Pole Vault
Current record: Armand Duplantis – 6.30m (2025)
Our confidence: 99.9%
This one feels like a freebie. Armand Duplantis is coming off a season in which he has already broken the world record four times. Allegedly, he has also cleared higher heights in practice, and analysis of some of his current records suggests that his clearance on some of the heights could be 6.40m or higher.
2. Women’s 400-meter
Current record: Marita Koch – 47.60s (1985)
Our confidence: 95%
The women’s 400-meter record has persisted for over 40 years, but several challengers have finally emerged. Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone ran 47.78 seconds last year at the World Championships, which is the second-fastest time ever run. Even more remarkable is that she set this time in her first season, focusing on the flat 400-meter.
It doesn’t seem like it would take much for McLaughlin-Levrone to knock another 0.18 seconds off her personal best as she gathers race experience. Also not to be counted out is Marileidy Paulino, who ran 0.38 seconds off the world record at the 2025 World Championships to finish second behind McLaughlin-Levrone.
3. Men’s Discus
Current record: Mykolas Alekna – 75.56m (2025)
Our confidence: 90%
The five farthest all-time throws in the men’s discus were all set in 2024 or 2025 by Mykolas Alekna or Matthew Denny, with the three farthest throws all coming from the same competition in Oklahoma last spring.
It seems very likely that one of these two men could break the record, but Kristjan Čeh also posted the 9th and 10th longest throws of all-time last summer, and he’s another potential candidate for breaking the 76-meter mark.
4. Women’s 5,000-meter
Current record: Beatrice Chebet – 13:58.06 (2025)
Our confidence: 65%
Beatrice Chebet set the World Record in the women’s 5,000-meter at the Prefontaine Classic last summer, on the same day her compatriot Faith Kipyegon broke the 1,500-meter record. In the same race, Agnes Jebet Ngetich set the third fastest 1,500-meter time of all time with 14:01.29, showing that there are multiple contenders for breaking the record again.
Gudaf Tsegay has the second-fastest time in history, 14:00.21, set back in 2023. However, she also posted 14:04.41 at the Prefontaine Classic, which ranks as the fifth-fastest mark of all time.
5. Women’s 100-meter Hurdles
Current record: Tobi Amusan – 12.12s (2022)
Our confidence: 60%
Three of the four fastest times in history were set last season. Masai Russell and Tia Jones ran 12.17 seconds and 12.19 seconds, respectively, at the Miami Grand Slam Track meeting, and Russell followed this up with another 12.19-second time in Poland in August.
Grace Stark also posted the sixth fastest time with 12.21 seconds, putting her within a tenth of a second of the record as well.
6. Women’s hammer throw
Current record: Anita Włodarczyk – 82.98m (2016)
Our confidence: 50%
Camryn Rogers has been the face of the women’s hammer throw over the past several years. She currently sits number two on the all-time list with a best of 80.51m set at the World Championships this past summer.
Włodarczyk is the only person ahead of her, and she currently has the six highest marks of all time. Rogers will turn 27 midway through the outdoor season in a highly technical event. Of Włodarczyk’s six best throws, she set them all in her 30s, except for her fourth-highest mark set one week shy of her 30th birthday. If Rogers doesn’t break the record this year, she still seems to have a large potential window to break it in the future.
7. Women’s 1,500-meter
Current record: Faith Kipyegon – 3:48.68 (2025)
Our confidence: 50%
Faith Kipyegon broke her own World Record last July at the Prefontaine Classic. It marks the third year in a row that she has broken the world record in the event. If she’s healthy, it seems like she could make another attempt at her own record.
The reason why our confidence is only 50% is that she’s suggested before that she could move up to the marathon eventually.
8. Men’s 800-meter
Current record: David Rudisha – 1:40.91 (2012)
Our confidence: 40%
David Rudisha broke the men’s world record in the 800-meter back in 2012. He holds the three fastest times in history, but there have been several contenders for his record in recent years. Emmanuel Wanyonyi and Marco Arop have both come close, running 0.20 and 0.29 seconds off the record, respectively, in 2024.
Djamel Sedjati, Gabriel Tual, and Bryce Hoppel also ran under 1:42:00 in 2024. We don’t know who will break the record, but it looks like enough people are getting close that they could feed off each other and make a legitimate attempt.
9. Men’s 400-meter
Current record: Wayde van Niekerk – 43.03s (2016)
Our confidence: 30%
Wayde van Niekerk’s record hasn’t had any serious contenders in recent years, but both Quincy Hall and Matthew Hudson-Smith have come within 0.31 seconds at the Paris Olympics.
Hall is coming off a season where he missed the USA Championships and World Championships with a hamstring strain, but he’s still our top pick for breaking the record this season.
10. Men’s 1500m
Current record: Hicham El Guerrouj – 3:26.00 (1998)
Our confidence: 20%
The 1,500-meter is one of the oldest records on the track, persisting since 1998. Since then, the closest challenger has been Asbel Kiprop, who ran 3:26.69 in 2015. Jakob Ingebrigtsen has run the fastest time in the past decade, posting 3:26.73 in 2024.
Azeddine Habz ran the world lead this past season with 3:27.49, less than two seconds off the record. Cole Hocker’s time of 3:27.65 from the Olympics ranks him eighth all-time, and Phanuel Kipkosgei Koech is ninth with his time of 3:27.72 from the Diamond League in Paris this past summer.
There are a few other active men who could also make a run at the record, including Josh Kerr, Yared Nuguse, and George Mills.
Which of these records do you think are going to be broken? Or did we miss one? Join us on Instagram to leave your thoughts.